I’ve been looking at India’s credit data this week.
The Union Budget points to roughly ₹12.2 lakh crore in public capex for FY2026-27, much of it tied to long-horizon infrastructure and manufacturing capacity.
At the same time, banks appear to be reclaiming market share from NBFCs by passing on rate cuts faster. Smaller NBFCs, meanwhile, are facing tighter and costlier funding conditions even as headline credit growth remains healthy.
That combination is worth watching.
Long-duration projects are being built on a funding base that is becoming more uneven. Such gaps rarely disappear. They tend to show up later - as refinancing pressure, balance-sheet stress, or consolidation.
Worth tracking.
Not predicting.
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